MANY CLINTON SUPPORTERS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INSPIRED TO VOTE IN NOVEMBER: THIS RESULT WILL LIKELY HAND TRUMP A NARROW VICTORY
Originally Written in 2016 Before the Election.
When Bob Dylan wrote “The line it is drawn, the curse it is cast” in his famous song, “The Times They Are A-Changin,” he could have been writing about the possible outcome of the Presidential election between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. The polls and trends suggest that Clinton is likely going to be the winner.
The ultimate “lines”, however, seem unclear: Clinton will handily sway minority and female voters; Trump will win white, blue-collar
males and the majority of conservatives– but neither candidate will garner record support from any of these sectors. Clinton will not receive the record number of black voters that Obama did, and Trump will fall short of the number of evangelical voters and traditional conservatives that McCain and Bushes received during their Presidential campaigns.
The “curse” is that the country might be under the spell of another Clinton or Trump for four years– either outcome would guarantee equal discord and disharmony in the country, although a Trump victory likely would bring more violence.
The outcome is yet to be “cast” in stone because of the uncertainty of the number of supporters that will either stay home on election night or vote for a fringe candidate. Both candidates present with significant flaws.
We think Trump has a slight edge over Clinton where voter turnout is concerned. Clinton has not been able to mobilize and enthuse her supporters the way Obama has– many black voters will stay home. Trump supporters, on the other hand, appear to be excited– many will consist of people voting for the first time or of those who have sat out a few elections. We predict a narrow victory for Donald Trump this November.