RACE BETWEEN TRUMP AND CLINTON STILL CLOSE– MANY TRUMP SUPPORTERS ARE NOT REFLECTED IN THE POLLS

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The Presidential race between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton is coming to an end in one month. Most Americans have made up their minds– presently Clinton has an approximate 5 percentage point lead. However, both candidates have the opportunity to change the outcome of the election given a sizable number of undecided voters.

The dim view of both Clinton and Trump has retarded the normal inclination to get behind a candidate early – particularly where millennial women are concerned. A big question now is whether Trump’s disparaging comments about women while on a bus with the guys trumps the negativity of the recently released Wikileaks emails showing that Clinton has been lying about her connections with Wall Street bankers and her perceived ascendancy from the middle class to upper class.

According to the poll-tracking site, fivethirtyeight, “Clinton and Donald Trump now combine for a little over 84 percent of the vote. That’s the highest their combined share has been since we started issuing our forecasts in June.2 There hasn’t been a huge change, but it’s meaningful.” The site sets forth the following chart.

LV = LIKELY VOTERS

V = VOTERS

DATES 

POLLSTER 

GRADE

SAMPLE

WEIGHT 

CLINTON TRUMP JOHNSON

LEADER

SEP. 27-OCT. 3 Google Consumer Surveys

B

22,006

LV

3.89

39%

34%

7%

Clinton +5

OCT. 5-6 Quinnipiac University

A-

1,064

LV

2.42

45%

40%

6%

Clinton +5

OCT. 2-6 Ipsos

A-

1,107

LV

2.38

42%

38%

9%

Clinton +4

SEP. 28-OCT. 2 CNN/Opinion Research Corp.

A-

1,213

LV

2.26

47%

42%

7%

Clinton +5

OCT. 3-6 Fox News

A

896

LV

2.20

44%

42%

6%

Clinton +2

SEP. 21-24 Selzer & Company

A+

1,002

LV

2.13

41%

43%

8%

Trump +2

OCT. 1-7 USC Dornsife/LA Times

2,690

LV

2.00

43%

46%

Trump +3

OCT. 4-6 The Times-Picayune/Lucid

2,262

LV

1.96

45%

35%

7%

Clinton +10

OCT. 3 Gravis Marketing

B-

1,690

RV

1.77

44%

44%

5%

Tie

OCT. 4-6 Rasmussen/Pulse Opinion Research

C+

1,500

LV

1.71

43%

42%

7%

Clinton +1

 

As the chart indicates, the race is close. It is now known that a sizable number of voters who plan to support Trump are not being reflected in the polls– many shun telephone calls from pollsters. Accordingly, insiders believe that the race is extremely close.

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