THE MATH MAY FAVOR TRUMP IN THE GENERAL ELECTION

Note: This article was written in 2016 well before the general election.

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It is easy to make generalizations about the states where Democrats are most likely to win and where Republicans are favored in the general election. For example, there are 19 states that have flipped between the Republican and Democrat candidate over the past 20 years. In 31 states the same political party has won. The Democrats have consistently won 18 of those states (not including the District of Columbia where the Democrats always win). But if the truth is to be told, such statistics may be meaningless in a Trump versus Clinton election because of the historical distinction between the candidates. For one, Clinton, if elected, will be the first female President. Trump has risen to the top mainly because he is a populist candidate

Summary of results of 200020042008, and 2012 presidential elections:

  Map of red states and blue states in the U.S.
Red=The Republican candidate carried the state in all four most recent presidential elections (2000, 2004, 2008, 2012).
Pink/=The Republican candidate carried the state in three of the four most recent elections.
Purple=The Republican candidate and the Democratic candidate each carried the state in two of the four most recent elections.
Light blue=The Democratic candidate carried the state in three of the four most recent elections.
Dark blue=The Democratic candidate carried the state in all four most recent elections

Source: Wikipedia

THE 2012 ELECTION VERSUS 2016 ELECTION: THE MATH STARTS TO FAVOR TRUMP

President Obama scored 332 electoral votes and 62,611 million votes in 2012. Romney received 206 electoral votes and 59,134 votes. The closest margins between Obama and Romney, where Obama won, are looked at in the chart below. 

OBAMA VS. ROMNEY

STATE WINNER PERCENT

Colorado Obama 51.2 to 46.5

Florida Obama 50.0 to 49.1

Iowa Obama 52.1 to 46.5

Michigan Obama 54.3 to 44.8

Nevada Obama 52.3 to 45.7

New Hampshire Obama 52.2 to 46.4

New Mexico Obama 52.9 to 43.0

Ohio Obama 50.1 to 48.2

Pennsylvania Obama 52.0 to 46.8

Virginia Obama 50.8 to 47.8

Wisconsin Obama 52.8 46.1

By way of comparison, in late April 2016, Donald Trump had amassed 8,776,586 votes in the Republican primary compared to Romney’s numbers in the same primaries of 6,654,029. That is a 31.79% difference. If Trump’s percentages continue, and there is no reason to believe they will not, the increase in votes for Trump will almost certainly parlay over to the general election giving Trump the edge.

The other significant fact is that Hillary Clinton will not get the same number of black voters that Obama did– it is estimated that she will receive between 19-21 percent fewer black votes. Obama and his inner circles are less than enthusiastic about Clinton and his presence on the campaign trail will be minimal– all to the advantage of Trump. 

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