An article in Politico contained the quote, “The race for the White House is over,” said Sarah Isgur-Flores, the deputy campaign manager for former GOP candidate Carly Fiorina. “Now, it’s just a question of the collateral damage.” Of course, the statement is nonsense and smacks of sour grapes.
The article goes on to summarize the parade of horribles that Trump faces today: Clinton has a 5.5 percentage vote lead; more than sixty percent of voters view him unfavorably; Clinton has a 20 percent edge with women; and the desertion of Republicans such as Speaker Ryan.
But the “parade of horribles” the article refers to may be a fallacy: It does not necessarily follow that Trump will lose the election because of this alleged decline in female supporter numbers, prompted in part, by recent complaints of multiple women accusing him of sexual assault or abuse.
The figures show that women are equally divided on the question whether Trump’s alleged abuse and treatment of women is a dispositive factor where their votes are concerned (Polls put the percentages at 50/50). But these numbers are skewed because the women surveyed were not first screened for biases either for or against the two candidates. Moreover, the perceived “horrible” aspect of Trump’s behavior is more likely to relate to a temporary emotional appeal that will not overcome Hillary Clinton’s hard-wired neurological incapacity, to tell the truth. The number of women who will vote for Trump in November is likely to increase given the longevity of Clinton’s dishonesty.