TRUMP’S PATHWAY TO THE REPUBLICAN NOMINATION IS NOW CLEAR SAILING- HIS WIN IN NEVADA MAKES IT 3 IN A ROW
Why does the Republican establishment hate Donald Trump? Conservative party insiders are still scrambling to derail Trumps continuing surge in the polls by widely and openly funneling money through PACs and direct contributions to the Rubio campaign. The problem for the establishment is that they fail to realize that Trump’s popularity is based largely on his outlier status– a substantial and growing number of Americans are angry with the status quo, and want change, preferably through an outsider. People who rarely vote, or seldom do, are coming out in droves. This increase in numbers is due to two phenomenon: Donald Trump has managed to provoke most of these new voters into action by launching his challenging issues on immigration and other politically incorrect matters, and his attacks on the establishment that have created much anger against them. Trump is said to have a “ceiling” in the sense that his backers top off at an approximate 35%, and after that his disapproval rate kicks in. Rubio and Cruz believe that as individual candidates (where they go up against Trump alone), they can beat him because of his high disapproval ratings. This theory assumes that not only will the negatives hurt Trump, but Rubio or Cruz will gain the support of the these disgruntled when one of them backs out of the race. However, there is no empirical evidence to support the conclusion that either Cruz or Rubio backers would not support Trump to some degree as well — significant enough to keep his lead. Moreover, so far, neither candidate seems to be able to get Trump’s evangelical vote from him. The same analysis is true if Carson or Kasich drop out. It strongly appears that Trump is on the way to victory because his momentum is strong (he easily won Nevada today), and none of the other candidates are likely to quit their campaigns, and even if they did, Trump is demonstrating that he would get the majority of the votes against any singular candidate.